What's to Come

Changing to Wordpress

Andy Huckaba — Thu, 20 Mar 2008 19:29:00 +0000

I'm changing over to Wordpress and my new RSS feed is http://www.finitytech.com/wordpress/?feed=rss2

Please subscribe to the new feed

Citing: "Broadband Legislation Could Boost Economy by $134 Billion Annually"

Andy Huckaba — Thu, 28 Feb 2008 21:23:00 +0000

Last Mile Online had an article today worth considering and to an extent, consistent with my earlier posts on Broadband Policy in the U.S.

From my archives: Call for a National Broadband Policy

See this article: Broadband Legislation Could Boost Economy by $134 Billion Annually

New Social Networking Site

Andy Huckaba — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 20:24:00 +0000

I don't typically use this forum to promote things, but a client of mine has recently launched a very promising and well designed social networking site for people of the Catholic faith.

Go to http://www.mycatholicvoice.com to participate. It already features thousands of professionally created audio, video and literature entries. Since launch, they are now picking up the user generated content as well. It's a must for those wanting to deepen their Christian faith.

Stats on Social Networks

Andy Huckaba — Wed, 27 Feb 2008 19:17:00 +0000

Statistics on Social Network traffic from TechCrunch The Global Race Among Social Networks Heats Up. Keep an Eye on Hi5, Friendster, and Imeem

It's becoming a way of life!

The Next Generation of Computer Interfaces

Andy Huckaba — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 17:31:00 +0000

In the news over the last week have been a couple of articles talking about next generation user interfaces with computers. First was a Bill Gates prediction: Gates sees diminished role for keyboards where in an address at Carnagie Mellon, he stated "People will increasingly interact with computers using speech or touch screens rather than keyboards".

Second have been several articles about Apple filing an 80 page patent on an interface that would replace the traditional keyboard and mouse combo.

We should anticipate the proliferation of gesture computing type interfaces, spurred by the interface of the iPhone which gave the public a taste for interface with a high ease-of-use factor. There are several videos out there that demonstrate gesture computing, but take a look at Jeff Han on TED This gives you a nice view on what's possible today.

I still wonder about the voice model, even though there have been many voice recognition tools available for sometime. I suspect we'll eventually get a hybrid of multi-touch, voice and "virtual keyboard".

All very exciting. I can't wait to get my first "touch" computer!

SMS Messaging a Winner for Presidential Campaigns

Andy Huckaba — Mon, 18 Feb 2008 18:14:00 +0000

In an article on MarketingCharts.com titled Mobile Advertising Changes Voters’ Attitudes and Behaviors, some astounding results are cited from recent Presidential campaigns on the use of SMS ads to promote their candidate.

The overall impact was considerable, with 28% altering their voting intentions

If you were to get a text message on your phone for a particular candidate, would it:

a. cause you to pay more attention to that candidate?
b. make you more likely to vote for that candidate?
c. turn you off completely?

How would you feel if you got a blast message from a Presidential candidate?

This campaign cycle is displaying some unique uses of mobile technology. Political Consultants will try anything if it gives them an upper hand on their opponents. Expect to see a lot more as we move toward the November elections.

-Andy

More Presidential Candidate Tech Assessments

Andy Huckaba — Mon, 04 Feb 2008 19:06:00 +0000

Since my last post assessing the stances of different candidates regarding broadband, several other bloggers have made assessments. One I thought was quite clever was from GIZMODO the first on Democratic Candidates and the second for the Republican Candidates

I especially liked the "If [candidate] were a gadget, she'd be" sections.

-Andy

Presidential Candidates' positions on Broadband

Andy Huckaba — Tue, 22 Jan 2008 18:31:00 +0000

As promised in an earlier post titled More Broadband, I've taken a look at the leading presidential candidates and their positions on broadband in America. What I am finding is that the Democratic candidates seem to have a stronger grasp on this issue. Sadly, with the exception of Senator McCain, the Republican candidates say very little about the issue of broadband accessibility, affordability, penetration and speed. The D's are a little light on the details, but all recognize the challenges of rural America, the current 200 kbps standard and the concept of coming back into a position of world leadership in broadband. Some even recognize the benefits to our economy, healthcare and educational systems.

Below are some quotes from the candidates' websites and interviews as well as commentary by me where there are no real quotes to be seen.

Deploy Next-Generation Broadband: "Barack Obama believes that America should lead the world in broadband penetration and Internet access. He believes we can get true broadband to every community in America through a combination of reform of the Universal Service Fund, better use of the nation's wireless spectrum, promotion of next-generation facilities, technologies and applications, and new tax and loan incentives. Full broadband penetration can enhance competition, provide economic growth, and bring significant consumer benefits. Obama has supported Chicago's citywide wireless broadband initiative and believes national policy should support state, local, and public-private partnerships as well as private efforts to make high speed access to the Internet available to all Americans. As a key step to achieving full broadband access, Obama believes the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) should provide an accurate map of broadband availability using a true definition of broadband instead of the current 200 kbs standard and an assessment of obstacles to fuller broadband penetration."
Hillary Clinton: • The Rural Broadband Initiatives Act. "This legislation will extend and improve access to broadband services in small towns across America. It creates a policy and action framework to ensure that the federal government employs an effective and comprehensive strategy to deploy broadband service and access in the rural areas of the United States. The bill will also establish a Rural Broadband Innovation fund to explore and develop cutting edge broadband delivery technologies to reach underserved rural areas. The Rural Broadband Initiatives Act has been endorsed by the Communications Workers of America."
Hillary Clinton: Establish a national broadband strategy called Connect America. "Hillary will strengthen tax incentives for extending broadband to underserved areas. She will support state and local broadband initiatives, from new wireless technologies to high-speed fiber optics. And she will change the FCC rules so we that we finally have an accurate, detailed picture of broadband deployment and penetration rates. At present, the FCC data is unreliable because it is based on loose estimates and outdated standards. Hillary will also create a new public private partnership, modeled on the successful ConnectKentucky program which has dramatically improved broadband access. The initiative has stimulated significant private investment and has increased the state’s broadband coverage rate to over 90%."
Building a Universal, Affordable Internet: "The country that developed the internet is now 16th in the world in broadband penetration. While half of urban and suburban households have broadband, less than a third of rural homes do. John Edwards will set a national broadband policy to help make the Internet more affordable and accessible to all Americans, regardless of where they live or how much money they have. Universal broadband would stimulate job creation and result in up to $500 billion in economic benefits. The starting place is setting a goal of giving all U.S. homes and businesses access to real high-speed internet by 2010. Edwards will establish a national broadband map to identify gaps in availability, price, and speed; create public-private partnerships to promote deployment; require providers not to discriminate against rural and low-income areas and to improve accessibility for people with disabilities; support and expand the e-rate program; encourage local service providers and municipal wireless projects, and use the newly available 700 megahertz spectrum and broadcast television white space to support wireless networks that can connect with all digital devices." [Newsweek, 7/9/07; CWA, 2006; Pew, 2007]
John McCain: "I believe that we must promote competition and reduce regulation in order to secure lower prices and higher-quality services for consumers and encourage the rapid deployment of new technologies.
I have been a leading advocate in the Senate for seeking market-based solutions to increasing broadband penetration. We should place the federal government in the role of stimulator, rather than regulator, of broadband services, remove state and local barriers to broadband deployment, and facilitate deployment of broadband services to rural and underserved communities."
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is another would-be presidential candidate who doesn't seem to have a broadband policy. Nothing good, nothing bad, nothing quotable that the WCA could find to mention. http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0PJR/is_14_5/ai_n19378999/pg_5
Mike Huckabee - where I'm partial to the last name, he doesn't have a broadband platform for the future that I can yet see. Searches turn up very little and his website brings up nothing. The only thing I can find is his claim for an increase in e-government during his time as Governor in Arkansas.

In closing, I haven't really made up my mind about who will be the best leader for our country. I'm registered as a Republican, but have concerns about their lack of positions in regards to technology and the future of broadband. If you have some relevant information to add, please let me know.

-Andy

More Broadband

Andy Huckaba — Fri, 18 Jan 2008 17:08:00 +0000

I'm back to talking about broadband, inspired somewhat by a recent article in the Economist. Broadband: Open up those highways

The lead in to the story starts like this:

IN ERAS past, economic success depended on creating networks that could shift people, merchandise and electric power as efficiently and as widely as possible. Today's equivalent is broadband: the high-speed internet service that has become as vital a tool for producers and distributors of goods as it is for people plugging into all the social and cultural opportunities offered by the web.

Good lead and premise for the overall discussion. It's more than about how fast youtube pops up or about how many pictures can be transmitted. It has an economic, social and cultural basis and is important to follow from that standpoint. How competitive can we be when average speeds are 1/20th of the world leaders? Throw in the debate on Net Neutrality and we have a critical and politically explosive environment.

Stay tuned. My hope is to review the current Presidential candidates and their knowledge and stance on a national broadband policy that would propel the United States back into a leadership position in the world in terms of speed, accessibility and affordability of broadband.

Citing " Ten digital trends to watch out for in 2008"

Andy Huckaba — Mon, 14 Jan 2008 19:47:00 +0000

All of these seem to come in 10's! Why not 7's or 11's? That said, this is an article from e-consultancy.com that discusses the Ten Digital Trends to Watch Out For in 2008. There is a focus on social networking sites, mobile web use and trends in digital ads.

Worth a read!

-Andy

Ten more predictions...

Andy Huckaba — Mon, 07 Jan 2008 16:19:00 +0000

eMarketer came out with their Ten Key Online Predictions for 2008.

The 10 predictions for 2008 according to eMarketer:

1. Online ads remain resilient.
2. Video surge slows.
3. Social-network advertising hits $1.6 billion.
4. Networking goes beyond MySpace and Facebook.
5. YouTube decides the election.
6. Beijing Olympics pumps up ad spending.
7. Buy online, pick up in-store becomes expected feature.
8. Movie downloading hits the mainstream.
9. Music marketers roll out new business models.
10. Dynamic ads heighten gaming revenue potential.

The only one I really take issue with is the slowing of Video. Everything else seems somewhat obvious to me.

-Andy

Citing Three Predictions for 2008

Andy Huckaba — Thu, 03 Jan 2008 13:49:00 +0000

Economist.com put out an article entitled Technology in 2008, Three Fearless Predictions. Fearless might be stretching it a bit, but there are some interesting concepts brought forth. Their major categories are:

Surfing Will Slow
Surfing Will Detach
Surfing and Everything Else Computer Related, Will Open

The first ties into some previous blogs of mine, especially Degrading of the Internet and The Broadband Delimma, Broadband Delimma Part 2, and Broadband Delimma Part 3.

To balance all of this arm waving on the potential for a slowdown of the Internet, see The Myth Of The Bandwidth Crunch Just Won't Die from techdirt.com.

-Andy

Insider's Report - 12/2007

Andy Huckaba — Wed, 02 Jan 2008 19:45:00 +0000

Bob Cohen - SVP at Universal McCann publishes his projections on advertising spending as well as his analysis of the previous year. See the report

Significant are the trends domestically and globally for advertising and how they compare with the GDP growth. Less growth is expected in the U.S. and more globally thanks to China and India.

Plan For Digital TV Conversion Part 2

Andy Huckaba — Thu, 20 Dec 2007 20:21:00 +0000

According the the most recent research brief from the Center for Media Research, half of the population is unaware of the Digital TV Transition in 2009. See the article.

There are some interesting stats in this brief and I think it points out the challenges that lie ahead in communication and transition.

A Plan For Digital TV Conversion

Andy Huckaba — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 21:21:00 +0000

Does the FCC have a plan for the Digital TV conversion slated for February 17, 2009? Congress isn't sure and is beginning to raise the caution flags as to the potential fall-out.

In short, on February 17, 2009, analog signals will cease to exist, thus making those analog televisions that rely on over the air, or terrestrial signals useless. That means no more soaps, American Idol, or any other shows for an estimated 20% of the population. That's enough to cause major political upheaval and Congress knows it! See today's article in the Kansas City Star titled Congress prepares for digital TV switch

Consumers will have three options: They can buy new TV sets with digital tuners. They can connect to cable, satellite or a pay-television service. Or they can buy a converter box for $60 to $70 that will allow them to watch digital programming with their old analog sets.

What's at stake besides lost elections and people finding something else to do with the 4.6 hours each day that they watch TV? It's a little thing called spectrum and the desire to free up spectrum for public safety use and to auction off the rest for billions of dollars.

I suspect this one will get real interesting over the next months.

Marketing On FaceBook

Andy Huckaba — Wed, 12 Dec 2007 17:16:00 +0000

Justin Smith from Inside Facebook has written a very interesting post titled The Facebook Marketing Bible: 24 Ways to Market Your Brand, Company, Product, or Service Inside Facebook. This is definitely worth the read for those who wish to understand the marketing potential afforded through Facebook. The insights given not only give a glimpse of how people use and interact in Facebook, but also some strategies to reach this group with your products, services and ideas.

Hats off to Justin for this article that gives us the opportunity to build on our understanding of this channel.

Top 10 Lists from Nielsen

Andy Huckaba — Wed, 12 Dec 2007 16:48:00 +0000

Nielsen just recently released its top 10 lists for 2007. This is an interesting, but not overly revealing look at what was popular this past year.

See the article "Nielsen Issues US Top-10 Lists for 2007" on Marketingcharts.com

Call for a National Broadband Policy

Andy Huckaba — Mon, 03 Dec 2007 15:08:00 +0000

Below is the text of a paper I helped to develop for the National League of Cities. Sorry for the length of the post. I'm anxious for feedback.

Cities: An Advocate and Partner in National Broadband Internet Deployment

Once a leader in availability of broadband Internet access, the United States continues to fall behind other countries in broadband Internet availability. America’s local governments believe that this situation threatens the competitive viability of our country. The National League of Cities (NLC) advocates for the development of a National Broadband Internet Policy, with the goal of wider deployment of broadband Internet networks throughout our nation, providing affordable services and applications that will have a profound impact on all aspects of life in the United States. Broadband Internet access can transform the way our children learn, the way we work, the way we spend our leisure time, the way we govern ourselves, and the way we communicate. NLC is convinced that broadband Internet access will help the United States bridge the economic and social gaps that separate our nation’s citizens. As a nation, we must do more to achieve these goals.

Country	Users
Denmark	31.9
Netherlands	31.8
Iceland	29.7
Korea	29.1
Switzerland	28.5
Norway	27.7
Finland	27.2
Sweden	26.0
Canada	23.8
Belgium	22.5
United Kingdom	21.6
Luxembourg	20.4
France	20.3
Japan	20.2
United States	19.6

In the same way that affordable, universal telephone access fostered our country’s economic success after World War II, broadband Internet access clearly has the same role in our country’s economic success. Broadband access promotes economic development, enhances public health and safety, and increases educational opportunities for millions of Americans across the country. In the early 1990s, the United States was one of the world’s leaders on broadband Internet penetration. In 2001, the US ranked fourth among its Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) counterparts. In a dramatic slide, by 2006 the United States slipped to fifteenth in national broadband penetration in a later OECD survey. The table at right summarizes the 2006 data.

What is broadband Internet access?

We define broadband Internet access as a high performance, continuously available Internet Protocol connection capable of supporting full-motion two way interactive video applications.

The Federal Communications Commission currently uses an antiquated standard of 200 kbps to measure “advanced” broadband Internet connections within the United States. Connection at this speed is insufficient for users to originate high‑quality video, and barely allows users to receive low‑quality streaming video; indeed it is only four times faster than a dial-up connection. By defining broadband Internet access at speeds that fail to facilitate the two‑way links necessary for interactive video applications, the FCC’s policy leaves our citizens at a disadvantage in the global market. The broadband Internet capabilities of other countries accommodate much higher connection speeds and are more widely available and less expensive per megabit than in the United States. In 2007, Japan emerged as the leader in broadband connections speed with an average downlink speed of 10.0 mbps (9,982 kbps), followed by Sweden with 7.3 mbps (7,304 kbps) and Latvia with 6.3 mbps (6,251 kbps.)

As consumers and businesses begin to recognize the potential for connectivity, the demands of users of telecommunications will change the acceptable standards for internet speeds. We believe that our nation is moving toward “2^nd generation broadband,” which will require significantly higher upload and download connections. Demand for this “2^nd generation broadband” will be shaped not only by what is currently available and being used, but through taking into consideration the ways that users will want to interact online. Successful implementation of “2^nd generation broadband” will move the United States into a world leader in broadband access, and industry must strive to meet the increased connectivity speeds demanded and expected from all segments of society.

Why is broadband Internet access important to the United States?

Many experts assert that much of our recent economic growth is a result of businesses leveraging broadband Internet access, improving productivity, providing new products and services, and supporting innovation in all sectors of the economy.

By regaining a leadership position in worldwide deployment of broadband Internet access, our nation can continue to be the leader in developing services delivered over broadband networks -- ensuring that our nation stays competitive. It is clear that broadband Internet access increases marketplace competitiveness, enabling businesses to allow their employees to telecommute and work flexible schedules. Flex-time and telecommuting policies enable businesses to tap a geographically dispersed workforce, and work with colleagues around the world on innovative projects. Workers benefit by having a wider choice of employers, and providing needed options for those unable to work in office settings due to illness or disability.

The 2006 American Interactive Consumer Survey found that:

The number of Americans whose employers allow them to work remotely at least one day per month increased 63 percent, from 7.6 million in 2004 to 12.4 million in 2006
In 2006, 19.1 million home-based “employed telecommuters” used broadband Internet access, compared to 8 million in 2004.

The Department of Commerce found that between 1998 and 2002, broadband Internet access added about 1 to 1.4 percent to the overall growth rate in jobs. This is significant considering the overall job growth rate during this period was 5.2 percent. In addition, broadband Internet access added about .5 to 1.2 percent to the growth rate of business establishments (firms) in the U.S. between 1998 and 2002.

How can government help facilitate a competitive U.S. broadband Internet access market?

Just as the original development of the Internet was spurred largely by the Department of Defense, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency interest in creating a, “network of computers, connected to one another by wide-band communication lines" which provided "the functions of present-day libraries together with anticipated advances in information storage and retrieval and [other] symbiotic functions.”[1] NLC believes all levels of government (local, state and federal) should facilitate deployment of broadband Internet access through policies and regulations that favor government and private sector investments.

NLC further urges Congress to enact federal legislation creating a task force to be comprised of representatives from all interested parties, including, but not limited to, all levels of government (local, state, tribal, and federal), consumer organizations, representatives of underserved communities, all segments of the communications industry, representatives of private sector generally, and not-for-profit sector organizations together to recommend and promote policies and programs that will result in ubiquitous, affordable broadband Internet access, and report its recommendations to the President and Congress within a timely manner.

Finally, NLC advocates that the federal and state governments should promote the continuing advancement of municipal broadband Internet access. Local governments across the country are offering fast, affordable broadband Internet access, and should be encouraged to promote these initiatives. The NLC urges Congress to pass legislation that would prohibit states from hindering local government broadband networks through state legislation that prohibits or restricts local municipalities and communities from offering high-speed broadband access.

[1]Man-Computer Symbiosis, January 1960, J.C.R. Licklider.

Degrading of the Internet?

Andy Huckaba — Wed, 21 Nov 2007 18:11:00 +0000

There is an interesting article titled "Internet 'brownouts' feared by 2010 as user traffic soars", based on a study done by Nemertes Research. The premise is, "Rising demand for bandwidth-hogging Internet activities such as swapping music files and watching YouTube videos threatens to outstrip the Web's infrastructure within three years". That the outer edges of the Internet will not be able to handle the growth without significant investment, especially "last mile" infrastructure.

While I'm unsure of the timing, I do think we're near a cross-road and many will begin to feel the speed degrade. The Internet is the vehicle for so many mission critical applications and activities and a slow down will be very troublesome.

So, what's the answer? Is it a higher level of investment by the Federal Government, State Governments or Local Governments? Is it a higher level of infrastructure investment by private industry? Ultimately I think it needs to start with a National Broadband Policy and vision. It's time to create that "Man on the Moon" vision for broadband. This should include a sustainable broadband infrastructure. From the National League of Cities, we're pushing this notion and hope to gain momentum. The idea is as a country we strive to regain leadership in broadband speed, penetration and availability, citing not only the benefits to our citizens, but also the ability to continue to compete economically with the rest of the world.

Let me know your insights and thoughts on this!

More Stats on Media Usage

Andy Huckaba — Mon, 05 Nov 2007 16:47:00 +0000

The November 5th Research Brief from the Center for Media Research is an article titled: Consumers Staying Tuned to TV's, But Some Pick Online. What we see are astounding numbers of TV hours per household:

According to the Nielsen report:
The total average time a household had a TV set tuned during the 2006-2007 television year was 8 hours and 14 minutes per day
The average amount of television watched by individual viewers during the 2006-07 television year dipped by 1 minute per day to 4 hours and 34 minutes

It's hard to imagine these numbers because none of us have our TVs tuned this many hours each day! However, it is not hard to imagine the allure of television for advertisers given this kind of traction.

Another chart from the report is very interesting and adds to my ongoing collection of statistics.

Key US TV and Internet Metrics (2006 & 2011 millions)
	*2006*	*2011*
TV viewers	283.5	298.5
Broadband Internet users	133.4	200.2
Online video viewers	114.3	183.0
TV households	111.6	119.4
Broadband households	54.6	89.9
VOD enabled households	29.7	58.4
DVR households	18.6	45.1
Source: eMarketer, October 2007

One more quote to leave you with:

Paul Verna, senior analyst at eMarketer, suggests that "Rather than a wholesale shift in viewership from TV to the new-media channels, both media will actually grow in the next several years. Internet video will entrench itself in the content mainstream, right alongside TV, albeit not in such pervasive numbers."

Broadband Delimma - Part 3

Andy Huckaba — Thu, 01 Nov 2007 15:23:00 +0000

In a news release titled FCC Releases Broadband Access Data, Proposes Changes to Data Collection November 1, 2007 from CommunicationsDirect News, it appears that there is some positive movement in terms of understanding and redefining broadband:

Kevin Martin, the chairman of the FCC, has also announced that following criticism of the 200 Kbps criteria as anachronistic, broadband data collection is set to be upgraded, with Dow Jones reporting that granularity will be improved to use nine-digit ZIP codes from the current five-digit ZIP Codes. The tiers of broadband service would also be measured with 200 kilobits to 768 kilobits per second considered to be first-generation broadband, 768 kilobits to 1.5 megabits basic broadband, between 1.5 megabits and 3 megabits a second classified as high-speed service, between 3 megabits and 6 megabits called robust service, and anything over 6 megabits a second called premium.

This is positive, but what is still lacking is a National Broadband Policy that allows the U.S. to regain a leadership role in regards to penetration, speed and affordability. Two "old-school" notions that need to be broken, and I think are starting to be addressed by the FCC are:

that 200kbps is considered broadband
if anyone within a zip code has broadband access, then the whole zip code is considered to have broadband availability. (now getting more granular). I'd like to know it street by street!

The FCC is now classifying broadband into certain levels (i.e., first generation, high-speed, robust and premium). This will help to truly gain an understanding of what is being offered. Problem is, what is considered high-speed under this scheme will not be considered high-speed in the near future. I predict 12 to 18 months.

Ghosts Of Technologies Past - comment

Andy Huckaba — Wed, 31 Oct 2007 21:26:00 +0000

This article "Ghosts Of Technologies Past" from Forbes, made me nostalgic. Thought you'd like to see it.

Broadband Before Its Time

Andy Huckaba — Fri, 19 Oct 2007 13:56:00 +0000

Why not have the service providers divest their outside plant and local switches? Local or regional authorities could regulate them and, perish the thought, really do the job. Let's say that it is in the national interest and a right for everyone in this country to have universal, nondiscriminatory access to broadband at reasonable rates. Let's force that broadband utility to use its revenues to provide the broadband facilities we need to flourish as a country, including ubiquitous local wireless access. Let's close the broadband deployment gap that exists between the U.S. and the rest of the developed world. If this is not a great argument on the basis of economic efficiency, it is certainly a great one for fairness and economic development.

From Peter Bernstein's column in the 10/8/07 edition of Telephony Broadband before its time

Here's what I like about his viewpoint in the article.

It removes "billions in needless expenses for duplicative plant construction, management and upgrades"
It recognizes broadband as a utility
It recognizes the economic competitiveness gain for the United States of having "universal, nondiscriminatory access to broadband at reasonable rates"

New World Order for Advertisers and Media Owners

Andy Huckaba — Fri, 19 Oct 2007 13:35:00 +0000

From mediapost.com is a blog post called The Spread: New World Order by John Billett. Below is the opening:

Recently, I was asked to give a presentation on the "New World Order" for advertisers and media owners. What a daunting challenge.....

He writes about Media Owners, Manufacturers, Media Agencies and Consumers and how their roles change.

Future Files

Andy Huckaba — Fri, 12 Oct 2007 17:22:00 +0000

Richard Watson is a futurist writer and speaker and has written a book called "Future Files - A History of the Next 50 Years" . Chapter 1 is downloadable as a PDF and gives a flavor for the book. It actually reads more like Sci-Fi than reality, but I suspect there are some very relevant points and projections made.

The downloadable chapter is compelling enough to buy the book, so I'll do this and discuss it in another post. For those of you interested in these topics, please grab a copy of the book and read along. I suggest you balance these thoughts with the writings of Ed Barlow and Dr. Lowell Catlett.

I'll leave you with these quotes from chapter 1 of Future Files:

there’s a trend called too much information (TMI) that has a distant cousin called too much choice (TMC). In a nutshell, mankind is producing too much stuff. The amount of new information we now produce is estimated to be around 2 billion exabytes annually. That’s (very roughly) 2 billion billion bytes or about twenty billion copies of this book.

and....

For the technically minded, doorbells will disappear in favour of proximity indicators. We will constantly know where our friends and family are thanks to the descendents of services like Friendfinder, and we will be able to screen out the unknown and the unfamiliar. This will undoubtedly increase our safety, but it will remove the element of surprise from our lives.

Amazon’s recommendation software already removes chance encounters with totally unrelated books. Other types of software could do the same with people in the future. This is bad news for society and especially bad news for new ideas, which thrive on social interaction, cross-fertilisation, and serendipity. We will therefore meet more people like ourselves in the future and be protected from people and ideas that are strange or unfamiliar. This is hardly a recipe for global harmony and understanding.