Archive for the ‘predictions’ Category

Laws and ethics simply can’t keep up with technology

Citing a post 

The Apple-FBI battles are a prelude of things to come. Laws and ethics simply can’t keep up with technology

by : Fellow, Arthur & Toni Rembe Rock Center for Corporate Governance at Stanford University

The observations and discussions around policy making and technology are very current and are becoming even more critical as the pace of technology accelerates.  Not directly addressed, but inferred is the “social contract” that includes privacy and safety.  These are complicated issues!

Ending with a quote from Thomas Jefferson that frames the discussion well:

Thomas Jefferson said in 1816, “Laws and institutions must go hand in hand with the progress of the human mind. As that becomes more developed, more enlightened, as new discoveries are made, new truths disclosed, and manners and opinions change with the change of circumstances, institutions must advance also, and keep pace with the times.” But how can our policy makers and institutions keep up with the advances when the originators of the technologies themselves can’t?

Predictions of Ideas By IBM

By 2015, your mobile phone will project a 3-D image of anyone who calls and your laptop will be powered by kinetic energy. At least that’s what International Business Machines Corp. sees in its crystal ball.

Always fun to look into the future with IBM and see what could be. Enjoy the article from Bloomberg.com!!

IBM Predicts Holographic Calls, Air-Breathing Batteries by 2015

Stats on Web-to-TV

An article from marketingcharts.com indicates:

The number of US broadband households accessing web-to-TV content will leap to 24 million – and generate $2.9 billion in revenue from streaming services by 2013

See Web-to-TV Will Penetrate 24M Homes by 2013

This article ties with my last post The Future of Television

Citing “The Future of Broadband” from portfolio.com

Interesting article with some stats and thoughts regarding where broadband is headed. See The Future of Broadband – Building it Out, Portfolio.com

 

Spurred by a new wave of Skype-linked families, Hulu-watching flash mobs, and HD-video downloaders, global internet traffic is likely to quadruple by 2012. That’s an internet 75 times larger than it was just five years ago. It will be generating 27 exabytes—nearly 7 billion DVDs worth—of data each month.

 

The numbers are mind boggling and the technical challenges immense. 

 

-Andy

Referring to “Top 10 Media Trends in 2009″

Worth a read, from the 2009 edition of Deloitte’s TMT Predictions, Top 10 Media Trends in 2009  Sorry for the Romainian version of the WSJ, but the article is in english.  Some of the old standards are there like Mobile Advertising will double and user generated content will be replaced by more professional content. I don’t see it!  I believe user generated content will continue to explode, especially with YouTube and Twitter. Mobile Advertising will show some modest growth, but the advertising world still doesn’t get the model. They still are looking for eyeballs and until they understand the concept of targeted eyeballs, they’ll continue to buy mass media over targeted media.

 

-Andy

Citing “21 of the most stupid tech predictions”

An enjoyable list from techradar.com in an article 21 of the most stupid tech predictions

Phones

1. “Well informed people know it is impossible to transmit the voice over wires and that were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value.” — The Boston Post, 1865

2. “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” — Western Union memo, 1876

3. “The Americans have need of the telephone, but we do not. We have plenty of messenger boys.” — Sir William Preece, chief engineer at the Post Office, 1878

4. “There’s no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It’s a $500 subsidised item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I’d prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get.” — Steve Ballmer, USA Today, 2007

Audio and video

5. “Radio has no future.” — Lord Kelvin, inventor of the Kelvin scale, 1897

6. “The cinema is little more than a fad. It’s canned drama. What audiences really want to see is flesh and blood on the stage.” — Charlie Chaplin, 1916

7. “While theoretically and technically television may be feasible, commercially and financially it is an impossibility, a development of which we need waste little time dreaming.” — Lee DeForest, inventor of the vacuum tube, 1926.

8. “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” — Harry Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927

9. “[Television] won’t be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night.” — Darryl Zanuck, movie producer at 20th Century Fox, 1946

10. “Television won’t last. It’s a flash in the pan.” — Mary Somerville, educational broadcast pioneer, speaking in 1948

Computing

11. “Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons.” — Popular Mechanics, March 1949

12. “I went to see Professor Douglas Hartree [in 1951], who had built the first differential analysers in England and had more experience in using these very specialised computers than anyone else. He told me that, in his opinion, all the calculations that would ever be needed in this country could be done on the three digital computers which were then being built – one in Cambridge, one in Teddington, and one in Manchester. No one else, he said, would ever need machines of their own, or would be able to afford to buy them.” — Lord Bowden, American Scientist, 1970

13. “I have travelled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the year.” — Business books editor, Prentice Hall, 1957

14. “The world potential market for copying machines is 5,000 at most.” — IBM to the founders of Xerox, 1959

15. “In the mid-70s, someone came to me with an idea for what was basically the PC. The idea was that we would outfit an 8080 processor with a keyboard and a monitor and sell it in the home market. I asked: ‘What’s it good for?’ And the only answer was that a housewife could keep her recipes on it. I personally didn’t see anything useful in it, so we never gave it another thought.” — Gordon Moore, Intel

16.  “We will never make a 32-bit operating system.” — Bill Gates, speaking at the launch of MSX in 1983

17. “I believe OS/2 is destined to be the most important operating system, and possibly program, of all time.” — Bill Gates, foreword to the OS/2 Programmer’s Guide, 1987

18. “Two years from now, spam will be solved.” — Bill Gates, World Economic Forum 2004

The Internet

19. “Almost all of the many predictions now being made about 1996 hinge on the Internet’s continuing exponential growth. But I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse.” — Robert Metcalfe, 3Com founder and inventor of Ethernet, 1995

What the?

20. “Nuclear-powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality in 10 years.” — Sir Alex Lewyt, president and founder of vacuum cleaner maker Lewyt Corporation, 1955

21. “Next Christmas the iPod’ll be dead, finished, gone, kaput.” — Sir Alan Sugar, CEO of Amstrad, Daily Telegraph, February 2005

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